CHOSEN: End Times Newsletter – Issue 158
The Minister’s Corner
“You will know the truth, and the truth will set you free.” John 8:32
Morning by Morning
By Jill Briscoe
submitted by Johanna
A morning by morning small person am I
That’s good ‘cause I often get in a jam
So I come to the Lord at the start of the day
Then I’m ready for what comes my way.
Then when ‘come what may’ happens in the course of my life
And I find myself facing such trouble and strife,
If I’ve met Him at dawn, and He’s strengthened my hand
I find His good grace to withstand.
So I’m ‘minding my mind’ and He’s minding my heart
And I’m trusting and praising and doing my part.
A ‘morning by morning,’ small person am I
And quite frankly that’s how I get by!
How do you get by?
There’s a story in the news today
that took me somewhat by surprise
on how a ribbon of neutral atoms
has mysteriously come untied.
And I thought about it for a while
because in the picture I could see
so very many hidden things
and I wondered what it could mean.
We’ve learned there are no coincidences
that virtually everything has meaning
and it’s Your steady hand that guides
and sometimes acts in intervening.
We’ve learned that in these End Times
there are new things large and small
being revealed to the ones You love
so that You might warn us all.
And so I asked You in my mind
“Mother, what could this sign mean?”
And I prayed it was not on my own
understanding that I would lean.
And You led me to Your Word
for there the answer I would find
the meaning to this heavenly sign
You wish to share with all mankind.
Isaiah 58:6 Isn’t the fast I choose:
To break the chains of wickedness,
to untie the ropes of the yoke,
to set the oppressed free,
and to tear off every yoke?
Martha and Mary
38 While they were traveling, He entered a village, and a woman named Martha welcomed Him into her home. 39 She had a sister named Mary, who also sat at the Lord’s feet and was listening to what He said. 40 But Martha was distracted by her many tasks, and she came up and asked, “Lord, don’t You care that my sister has left me to serve alone? So tell her to give me a hand.”
41 The Lord answered her, “Martha, Martha, you are worried and upset about many things, 42 but one thing is necessary. Mary has made the right choice, and it will not be taken away from her.”
Job 33:31 Pay attention, Job, and listen to me. Be quiet, and I will speak.
This week, Maryland joined 7 other states in making the use of hand held cell phones while driving illegal. It is a much needed law and draws our attention to the prevalence of distracted driving in our culture. But driving is just one area of our lives in which we try to multi-task and in doing so perform to a lower standard of ability.
Like the well known story of Martha (the sister Lazarus who was brought back from death) we don’t always know when or how to set aside tasks and be fully present in our time with our Mother. And just like trying to drive while texting or talking on a hand held device, we may miss key information or guidance that help us stay safely on the road leading to our destination… the Kingdom of God.
Take time to turn off the TV. Put away your worldly reading material. Shut off your phone.
Make time to sit quietly at the feet of Yahweh and listen to Her speak to you.
Listen and pay attention.
The Importance of Timing
Submitted by Jeshaiah
Timing is very important in what seems like every aspect of life. When cooking, too much time on the burner causes food to char, and too little time makes it still yet not safe to eat. In combat, moving too quickly gives one’s position away and opens oneself up, and moving too late can be fatal. Even in these End Times, not taking the right moment that is seen to do as Father Wills is a missed opportunity to share Father’s light.
In scripture there are many references to time, and how all of Father’s Plan is laid out very intricately. Everything is like clockwork, and happens according to its time.
Ecclesiastes 3:1 — There is an occasion for everything, and a time for every activity under heaven:
There are not any coincidences, and Father’s timing of each event in nature can help to provide deep warning and lessons as to what is to occur.
Proverbs 6:6 — Go to the ant, you slacker!
Observe its ways and become wise.
Even the clouds that can be seen all have a lesson to share. Whenever there is a series of clouds that look like symbols in a straight line, or even something that looks like a depiction of a scene occurring, none of those things are a simple happening due to known scientific atmospheric interactions. As deep as our Mother is, there is always something more to Her Creation.
All the different occurrences of storms and disasters, both naturally and caused by mankind, are accumulating, with all the energy of destruction not being totally healed. The large section of Louisiana is still being repaired, and so is Haiti. At the same time, the Earth is healing itself from the damage that is being caused by mankind; back to its original paradise. The structures and cities that have been placed will be collapsed and wiped out as they are not healing to have, but an impediment. And then all the harm that mankind causes. One murder leaves a whole family, perhaps a whole city, grieving, and that grief can spread. Without Father’s healing hand, there is no full recovery. The accumulation of grief and other debilitating factors can only stack.
Jeremiah 17:9 — The heart is more deceitful than anything else and desperately sick—who can understand it?
All of these things can be seen and predicted, as they are also all signs of the times. If the strength that one is given is used as the time shows for, then strength will accumulate, and Father does not put Her servants through anything they cannot handle.
Proverbs 24:10 — If you do nothing in a difficult time, your strength is limited.
Proverbs 15:23 — A man takes joy in giving an answer; and a timely word—how good that is!
Matthew 10:10 — Don’t take a traveling bag for the road, or an extra shirt, sandals, or a walking stick, for the worker is worthy of his food.
Proverbs 16:26 — A worker’s appetite works for him because his hunger urges him on.
Proverbs 31:21 — She is not afraid for her household when it snows, for all in her household are doubly clothed.
We would like to announce the arrival of Book Two, the continuation of Chosen: End Times Truths Revealed.
Book Two starts where the first book left off and includes accounts from ministers Regina, Johanna, Deborah, Jeshaiah and Elisha, describing their individual journeys and experiences in their service to Yahweh and Christ over the past several years in autobiographical form.
It is available in .pdf form for free via www.chosen.weebly.com and will be updated monthly.
The Journey Continues
Below is a sneak-peek of each of the books included in Chosen, Book Two
There are many days in which I feel as though I must stop and focus and just try to get through the next 24 hours, some days even just the next hour, and then that day passes and the next arrives and passes, and arrives until all of a sudden a year has passed, and then two and four and now five. It’s odd how time can seem to pass so slowly and quickly at the same time. Many of these days, the good and the not-so-good, I will recount here and many have receded to the deeper recesses of my mind but what I’m able to remember, I share with you here honestly and openly…
On October 2nd or 3rd of 2005, I was on this website were there were camera’s placed through out peoples homes who claimed that they were being haunted. I have always liked supernatural things. I believed in ghost, angels and demons. I started talking to this woman and asked her how she see’s the things that she does. I also told her that I believed in spirit guides. She told me that she couldn’t help me with the guides but that she knew of a website where I could find some answers. She sent me the link to a forum by the name of “Beyond This World”. After looking at a few things and noticing that they had psychic exercises I decided to sign up to become a member…
Word came to us toward the end of May 2010 that we were to begin documenting our experiences ending where Chosen left off. Each Minister is to produce a “book” of our own that will be incorporated into Chosen. Its a little daunting to say the least. I have not been journaling as Regina has been (it isn’t something I naturally do). Also, I actually do not have a very good memory. But I trust that those things that Father wishes us to recall we will. We have been guided by Michael to read the book of ACTS to guide us. It seems to focus on events that show times of strong guidance from/interactions with Holy Spirit…
In 2006, I was able to reconnect with a long time friend. I found out she had co-authored a book. Considering how we had grown up together I was interested in the fact that she had written one and wanted to read it myself. She, Regina, sent me the book and some more details about it. I found out it was a lot to take in and did so in baby steps with much prayer and guidance from Father. I was blessed to freely ask any question of Regina and felt comfortable in doing so. I read the book with an open mind and while some of it confirmed my deepest suspicions other information provided was such an eye-opener…
Nourishment from the Throne
“For the LORD gives wisdom. From His mouth come knowledge and understanding.” Proverbs 2:6
Jaddai: All things are by design, including land masses. See if any of you can locate the crocodile in this photo:
P.S. Consider the location that the crocodile appears, and what it signifies.
The chessboard could be something else too. Just what struck me when I first saw it. Funny… the main stream media are part of the game, and this is obviously a tv news frame.
Heh, saw the crocodile in the same place, around the country of Cameroon. Don’t know too much about the country…
Regina: I didn’t see that one until it was marked, but I did see another nearby… (just click on the image below to enlarge and see markings)
I did a little research on Cameroon, it seems to be primarily Christian and recently during a world day of prayer their theme was Psalm 150:6, “Let everything that has breath, praise God.”
Crocodile’s are believed to have changed little since the dinosaur age and also swallow stones and crush their food – Would the crocodile perhaps represent the crushing of false religion?
Jaddai: The reason I pointed out the crocodile was so each of you will pay attention to the geographical designs in the future. The footprints of both holy and unholy influence are imprinted on everything in creation.
Everyone continue in your service to Father and Christ. A much rockier time is ahead. Don’t lose faith.
Spiritual War News
The Sons of Light against the Sons of Darkness
Jun 30, 2010
Jaddai – Seraiah did not have to be present when that explosion occurred. He could have set it to detonate the antimatter and then left before it happened. Seraiah is no dummy and he was an explosive expert in the army as a human. His prior knowledge would have come into play.
Regina: Oh my gosh…were you just here about 20 mins ago? I had that near exact thought about explosives bent detonated.
Jaddai: (Replying to Regina) I was talking your ear off.
Seraiah was smart enough to get there with out using his reserve energy, and then he offs himself to kill that leper of a serpent? I don’t think so. He’s in the Orion complex, and you can lay odds he’s close to Ariel. So close that Ariel will bite the dust like Dawn. It’s just a matter of time and however Seraiah intends to do it.
(Another dispatch comes in)
Jaddai: Yes, the JAC is spread out all through the Orion Constellation. But that grouped facility was the largest production plant in Orion. And now he has hit Rigel – I KNEW IT!!
That puts him at the edge, so he must be out in the expanse by now.
Joe – Jaddai’s headed to the expanse below Rigel out in space where our Antijaboks and Chebars will give aid to Seraiah if he shows there.
Jaddai did not locate Seraiah, but he did maneuver close enough to the Rigel vicinity where the 2nd blast occurred to do surveillance. The facility was located on a planet much like this earth that is named Pyramid. That’s because of the old Joint Command building them on that planet. This was the second largest production facility in the Orion Constellation held by the JAC. Where the facility was housed is completely gone. Look what the blast did to this planet.
The next facility that it’s likely Seraiah will try for is at Horsehead Nebula. In the vicinity of that region of the Constellation is another planet named Pharaoh. It is Sister to two other planets. Seraiah has already struck at two of the sisters, and this is the final production facility in the Orion Constellation. If he strikes at the final facility and is as successful as he has been at the past two, then the JAC will be crippled enough that they will only have what is left of their war machine to fight with. They will not be able to produce other crafts and weaponry to fend off our future invasion force. I have a file photo supplied by Liddia of the third sister planet we expect Seraiah to take action at. This is also the administrative base of Arieldamascus. I’ll upload it in a few minutes.
Jul 1, 2010
Joe – Home base of Arieldamascus and target that Seraiah will likely strike at next we hope. Good ole Seraiah, I guided him over the years and not in vain.
I know that the Seraph’s are chomping at the bit to storm Orion. Michael is holding off to see what Seraiah does next.
Liddia just got word that Michael has sent a fleet of Alpha towards the outskirts of Orion, and as soon as they have given Seraiah ample time to destroy the 3rd facility, then they will move in and begin the invasion. If he does not do so by midnight North Texas time, then they will go on in anyway and try to take out that last facility themselves as they then escalate the war-front throughout Orion. Michael told Jaddai it’s time to take the war to the core of the hub.
The invasion is under way. Seraiah blew the third facility at almost 8pm on the dot. They haven’t sent any pics with the dispatches, but I know they had their surveillance cameras trained on that planet. One dispatch simply said an enormous explosion occurred on Planet Pharaoh and that Michael signaled the invasion to begin. That order was given just a minute or two after the hour. I’ll keep everyone posted as Alpha roots out and destroys Father’s enemies Praise be to Father and Her throne of Sovereignty. Amen
Jeshaiah – Are whole large masses of the planet completely missing?
Jul 2, 2010
Joe – I think the top portion is where they said the facility had been. I know that much is missing
Alpha is working the enemy from the outer wheel’s edge and pushing them to the center of the spoke. Earlier in the night when some of the converts surrendered, they were all executed under the watchful eye of the JAC, and their spent energy was heaped up in waste piles with some of the offed JAC. They know the spent energy was not taken toward the OP, but instead, toward an EXIT where the spent energy was cast out of creation. Michael’s order is to take no prisoners and not to leave a trace of the offed enemy inside of Father. Now the JAC knows that fighting to the death is their fate. If they surrender, they too will be executed. They have no option except to fight on to their deaths. Michael has estimated thus far that approximately a 1/4 of the JAC has been offed and cast out of creation. And more than three million fallen ghosts have perished so far. He also calculated that the three facilities that were destroyed by Seraiah’s actions cost the enemy another 1/4 of their forces. No trace of any energy was left behind. They were completely annihilated. So his estimate is from past knowledge of the number of spirits that normally were residing at those facilities. In addition children, Father formed what looked like a large crop circle over Orion with cutter wheels that went from the outer edge to the center of the wheel. Undoubtedly giving a visual sign to Her Warriors of what She expects of them in dealing with demons and fallen ghosts She had no previous agreement with.
When it rains it pours.
Instead of second hand relays of information, I’ll put the dispatches on here. Jake usually notes north Texas time on them, but since he failed to do so on this one, I assume it happened within the last hour.
Lifting the Veil
Learning How to See and Decipher Spiritual Photos
This week I felt led to share some recent photos and markings that had to do with a “lifting of the veil” and seemed appropriate considering it is also the title of this Newsletter section.
Recently there was a UFO Press Conference held, on September 26th, 2010. Here is the news release concerning the conference:
Witness testimony from more than 120 former or retired military personnel points to an ongoing and alarming intervention by unidentified aerial objects at nuclear weapons sites, as recently as 2003. In some cases, several nuclear missiles simultaneously and inexplicably malfunctioned while a disc-shaped object silently hovered nearby. Six former U.S. Air Force officers and one former enlisted man will break their silence about these events at the National Press Club and urge the government to publicly confirm their reality. One of them, ICBM launch officer Captain Robert Salas, was on duty during one missile disruption incident at Malmstrom Air Force Base and was ordered to never discuss it. Another participant, retired Col. Charles Halt, observed a disc-shaped object directing beams of light down into the RAF Bentwaters airbase in England and heard on the radio that they landed in the nuclear weapons storage area. Both men will provide stunning details about these events, and reveal how the U.S. military responded.
Captain Salas notes, “The U.S. Air Force is lying about the national security implications of unidentified aerial objects at nuclear bases and we can prove it.” Col. Halt adds, “I believe that the security services of both the United States and the United Kingdom have attempted—both then and now—to subvert the significance of what occurred at RAF Bentwaters by the use of well-practiced methods of disinformation.” The group of witnesses and a leading researcher, who has brought them together for the first time, will discuss the national security implications of these and other alarmingly similar incidents and will urge the government to reveal all information about them. This is a public-awareness issue.
Declassified U.S. government documents, to be distributed at the event, now substantiate the reality of UFO activity at nuclear weapons sites extending back to 1948. The press conference will also address present-day concerns about the abuse of government secrecy as well as the ongoing threat of nuclear weapons.
Back in 2007 we were told and have shared with the flock: “Many people today believe the USA has been contacted by aliens and that the USA is hiding it from them. This has been to condition and prepare them for the great falsehood when the USA makes the claim, “You already knew the truth. We kept it hidden to keep down hysteria until the right moment to reveal our friends to the entire world.”
So in having watched the video, we felt as though we were watching the unfolding of events that we were told would occur several years ago. Dawn’s plan in misleading so many people seems to have hit a turning point with this single event.
Joseph was kind enough to post some photos and mark them in helping us to gain a greater understanding.
Joe: This is when the LOZ craft sighting at the RAF Bentwaters Airbase in England raised so much of a stir. What the two governments involved do not know or understand, is that the LOZ planted something at that base. It will become apparent when the battle of Armageddon begins and they try to use their strategic arsenal located there.
Here’s a crop:
Here it is upside down:
Color change to Sepia:
Signs From Above
“He rescues and delivers, He performs signs and wonders in the heavens and on the earth, for He has rescued Daniel from the power of the lions.” Daniel 6:27
Signs Down Below
But know this: difficult times will come in the last days. For people will be lovers of self, lovers of money, boastful, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, ungrateful, unholy, unloving, irreconcilable, slanderers, without self-control, brutal, without love for what is good, traitors, reckless, conceited, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, holding to the form of religion but denying its power. 2 Timothy 3:1-5
Signs in Humanity
The mission of Arks of Safe Haven is to connect via an extensive network and online message board forum, those individuals and families who have been affected by recent economic downfalls and are in need with those individuals who are ready, willing and capable of providing assistance to those in need with employment, shelter, work, food, clothing and other necessities.
Coupled with our primary mission of delivering the Kingdom Message of Salvation, the assistance of Arks of Safe Haven is available to all who are in need. Our purposeful intention is to follow in the footsteps of Christ as our example, by providing hope to the hopeless and answering the prayers of those who have been forced to live outside of society.
How You Can Help?
In order to provide for those whose outcry of prayers have reached our heavenly Father’s ears, Arks of Safe Haven is seeking out those who are able to provide shelter, whether it be an extra bedroom, empty rental property or a work for room and board agreement. Additionally, we also act as a liaison in connecting those with tangible items to donate to those in need like Food, Water, Clothing, & Other Personal Items. We pray that your heart is motivated to make a contribution, no matter how small. Visit http://www.arksofsafehaven.org and view the many posts from those in need to see if you’re able to help with advice, prayers or goods & services.
Signs in Natural Disasters
“You are going to hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, because these things must take place, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise up against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places.” Matthew 24:6-7
5.4 CENTRAL ALASKA
5.0 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.5 NORTHERN PERU
5.3 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
6.0 KEPULAUAN KAI, INDONESIA
5.7 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.3 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 LOS LAGOS, CHILE
5.0 KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.0 TONGA REGION
5.1 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.2 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
5.8 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.1 TUCUMAN, ARGENTINA
5.3 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.2 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.2 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 TONGA REGION
5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.1 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 COQUIMBO, CHILE
5.3 NEAR S COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.7 NEAR S COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.4 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.4 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND
5.6 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.5 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.6 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.6 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.5 KEPULAUAN KAI, INDONESIA
5.0 AMAZONAS, BRAZIL
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.6 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.6 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.3 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.5 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
NEW ZEALAND – Cantabrians remain on edge with tremors continuing to rattle the city. A 3.5 aftershock was felt just after midday Saturday, which followed two earlier tremors just after 10am, one registering at 3.5 and the other 3.9. A recent period of relatively little quake activity had given some a false sense of security and the latest jolts came as a shock. The latest aftershocks follow four shakes in a period of 40 minutes Friday night, recorded at magnitudes of between 3.2 and 4.1.The aftershock sequence is continuing but the frequency will drop off in time. Around 290 aftershocks of more than 3.5 have been recorded since the big one three weeks ago.
A magnitude 3.1 earthquake has sent tremors across much of New Hampshire and parts of Maine, Vermont and Massachusetts. The quake occurred at 11:28 p.m. Saturday, but there were no reports of injuries or damages. The quake, which is considered minor, was centered in Boscawen, N.H., about 10 miles north of Concord.
IRAN – An earthquake in southern Iran killed at least one person and injured three others Monday. The 5.5-magnitude quake hit Monday afternoon near Kazerun, about 50 miles west of Shiraz and 415 miles south of Tehran. “Some old buildings and homes in two nearby villages were also damaged.”
Fake California ‘earthquake warning’ creates confusion, panic on Twitter and Facebook. “80 HOUR MAJOR EARTHQUAKE WARNING; 6.0 to 7.0 earthquake likely in S California in the next 80 hrs,” a message from Twitter user “Quakeprediction” said. It was ‘retweeted’ by more than 1,000 people, causing it to spread quickly over the popular social networking website and leaving people wondering if it is real.
The rumor even forced the California Emergency Management Agency to put out a special statement to say it is a hoax. “Although the broad scientific community has been working relentlessly to give us better information about earthquakes and their behavior, being able to predict when earthquakes will strike is not something they can do at this point.” The purpose of the “Quakeprediction” Twitter account and its website appears to be to cause panic and confusion, as the person (or people) behind it have spread numerous false warnings over the past year. It regularly ‘predicts’ major earthquakes to hit California, but none have turned out to be true. Scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major earthquake occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California.
Indonesia on Thursday cancelled a tsunami alert issued after a major quake struck off West Papua. The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency measured the earthquake at 7.4 while the US Geological Survey recorded two closely spaced quakes measuring 6.2 and 7.2. “The tsunami alert has been lifted and also the quake had no potential for destruction but it was felt in several areas.” There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties in the remote area. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said no warnings were in effect following the quakes in the remote area located between the island of New Guinea and northern Australia. A 7.1-magnitude quake off the north coast of Papua in June killed 17 people and left thousands homeless.
TAIWAN – The Central Weather Bureau on Wednesday welcomed 10 mild earthquakes, including a magnitude 5.1 temblor, that shook eastern Taiwan’s Hualien County over 15 hours beginning Tuesday night. No casualties reported. The director of the bureau’s Seismology Center said a series of mild quakes in a short period of time helps reduce the likelihood of a powerful temblor in the area as the intense seismological activity releases large accumulations of tectonic pressure. Following a magnitude-4.3 earthquake that occurred at 9: 10 p.m. Tuesday, nine other temblors had hit the area northeast of the Hsiulin seismic observation station in Hualien County as of noon Wednesday. Of the 10 jolts, the greatest one was the magnitude 5.1 temblor. Both the magnitude 4.3 and magnitude 5.1 earthquakes were centered near the Taroko Gorge area.
Eastern Taiwan is located on a juncture between the Philippine Sea and the Eurasian tectonic plates, where underground activity is common and tectonic pressure regularly builds up.Thus the eastern coastal areas, including Hualien, Yilan and Taitung, are quake-prone. “Although it was RARE to have an area hit by 10 earthquakes in one day, it was not unprecedented.” Similar incidents occurred in the Hualien area in April 2005 and June 2009, and in Jiasian, Kaohsiung County in March this year.
Piton de la Fournaise volcano on Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean, is showing signs that it is likely going to erupt sometime soon. The volcano has already had an eruptive episode at the end of last year and the beginning of 2010, and just like before those eruptions, the volcano is experiencing high levels of seismicity. This has prompted local officials to raise the alert status near Piton and restrict access to the volcano. There has also been significant deformation noted on the volcanic edifice, suggesting that magma is rising up into the volcano. “A seismic crisis occurred at Piton de la Fournaise Volcano, Reunion on the evening of 23rd September. Several tens of earthquakes were located at the base of the summit area, in Dolomieu crater. The seismic crisis was associated with significant inflation (3 cm) of the volcano, especially near the summit. The data indicates that magma has moved towards the surface and an eruption is imminent.” Eruptions at Piton de la Fournaise are quite common – and can be quite the spectacle as well. They are commonly lava flows from fissure vents on the large shield edifice with some fire fountains as well – typical behavior for a Hawaiian-style eruption. The volcano is located in the southeast of the island. Most of the main population centres, including the capital, Saint-Denis, are clustered on the other half of the island.
INDONESIA – Eruption threat closes Mount Merapi to climbers. Apes and green peafowl were reported to have started to come down the mountain.
Following increased volcanic activity of Central Java’s Mount Merapi, the chief of the national park that surrounds it said on Sunday that routes to the summit had been closed. The volcano, which also extends into Yogyakarta province, has displayed a significant increase in seismic activity over the past week, with multiphase earthquakes increasing from a normal average of five times per day to 38 times per day. Volcanic earthquakes are also up from the normal average of once per day to 11 per day. The alert status had been increased on Friday from “normal” to “beware”, just three rungs below full eruption status, by the Volcano Investigation and Technology Development Institution. “Landslides and mudflows of volcanic material [remaining from previous eruptions] could easily kill someone.” Three sand miners were killed and two others seriously injured on the volcano on Saturday morning after a landslide buried them at an illegal sand mining site near Balerante village, Klaten, Central Java. “We are still investigating the cause of the landslide, but we have banned sand mining activities on the slopes of Mount Merapi. We suspect a landslide due to heavy rain.” People were urged not to disturb wild animals who were descending following the volcanic activity.
ICELAND’s Bárðarbunga volcano shows more activity over the last few days. Barðarbunga is a powerful stratovolcano in Iceland and is located under the ice cap of Vatnajökull glacier. It is the highest mountain in Iceland and makes for some powerful volanic activity when it erupts. Iceland’s Bárðarbunga volcano is said to erupt every 250 – 600 years if scientists are correct. Around 8000 years ago, when Bárðarbunga erupted, it caused lava to cover an area of 950 square kilometers. It is believed that Bárðarbunga will erupt sometime in the near future.
A ‘failed’ volcanic eruption caused a swarm of more than 30,000 earthquakes in a remote region of Saudi Arabia last year. The quakes show that plate boundaries can make their influence felt at far greater distances than researchers had supposed.
Magma rose from the bottom of the crust to within 2 kilometres of the surface. But rather than forming a conventional magma chamber, it forced its way through the rocks in a sheet, known as a dyke, many kilometres wide and as little as a metre thick. The volcanic earthquakes caused by the magma’s movement and the subsequent shattering of rocks are very different from those caused by tectonic movements. “They don’t have a main shock and aftershock sequence. Instead, there are many thousands of little earthquakes.”
Many of the earthquakes measured 2 or less on the Richter scale, and so were detectable only by instruments. But one, on 19 May 2009, had a magnitude of at least 5.4. That was enough to open up an 8-kilometre-long fissure across the desert and to crack walls and foundations in a nearby town, forcing the evacuation of 40,000 people. Scientists watched the surface as it bulged upward by as much as half a metre. The scientists’ first job was to determine whether a volcanic eruption was imminent. They concluded that it wasn’t. They also had to assess whether larger earthquakes could occur, but this is unlikely for volcanic earthquakes. The near-eruption occurred in an ancient lava field called Harrat Lunayyir in northwest Saudi Arabia. The area has seen many eruptions over the past 20 million years, but no volcanic activity in recorded history. Now the region may be primed for future eruptions, failed or otherwise. “A pathway from the mantle nearly to the surface was established. That’s the type of thing that tends to get reactivated.”
The volcanic activity in Harrat Lunayyir was of the type associated with the spreading of tectonic plates. But the main rift zone is almost 200 kilometres away, in the middle of the Red Sea. This suggests that bits of hot mantle that are upwelling beneath the Red Sea have leaked out under Saudi Arabia. FOR A RIFT ZONE TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT OVER SUCH A LONG DISTANCE IS UNKNOWN. “We’re going to have to go back and revise textbook models to understand why we have active volcanism and active stretching in an area away from a plate boundary. It shows that the simple picture of magmatism is unrealistic.”
The finding also has implications for public safety. Most of Saudi Arabia’s lava fields are in remote regions, but development near Medina is encroaching on a region known to have had a surface eruption in 1256. And the Kenyan capital Nairobi lies within 100 kilometres of a volcanic region. “We need a reassessment of volcanic hazards throughout East Africa and the Red Sea area.”
A better way to pinpoint where volcanic eruptions are likely to occur has been produced by an international team of geophysicists. The scientists investigated volcanic activity occurring in the remote Afar desert of Northern Ethiopia between 2005 and 2009. By studying a RARE SEQUENCE of 13 magmatic events – where hot molten rock was intruded into a crack between the African and Arabian plates – they found that the location of each intrusion was not random. They showed that they were linked because each event changed the amount of tension in the earth’s crust.
“It’s been known for some time that a large earthquake has a role to play in triggering subsequent earthquakes, but until now, our knowledge of volcanic events has been based on isolated cases. We have demonstrated that volcanic eruptions can influence each other. This will help us predict where future volcanic eruptions are likely to happen.”
The team studied the region around a large volcanic dyke – a vertical crack which is created when magma seeps from underground through rifts in the surface of the earth – which erupted in the Afar desert in September 2005. The magma was injected along the dyke between depths of 2 and 9 km, and altered the tension of the earth. The team was able to watch the 12 smaller dykes that subsequently took place in the same region over a four year period. By monitoring levels of tension in the ground near where each dyke was intruded they found that subsequent eruptions were more likely in places where the tension increases. “If you look at this year’s eruptions at Ejafjallajokull in Iceland, by estimating the tension in the crust at other volcanoes nearby, you could estimate whether the likelihood of them erupting has increased or decreased. Knowing the state of stress in this way won’t tell you when an eruption will happen, but it will give a better idea of where it is most likely to occur.”
Drilling into an active volcano doesn’t sound like the safest idea, but a plan to do so along a volcano near Naples, Italy, could help protect the city from a potentially catastrophic eruption. Geologists will drill into the volcanic formation, called Campi Flegrei, early next month. The volcano, part of a larger volcanic arc that includes Mount Vesuvius, last erupted in 1538. The ground around the volcano, however, has been swelling for the past 40 years, stoking fears of an eruption that would threaten the roughly 1 million residents of Naples.
The drilling will let scientists pull out rocks that will allow them to trace the volcano’s evolution, and predict its future. In early October, drillers will test the waters with a short well, and if everything looks good, the drills will plunge thousands of feet into the volcano in the spring of 2011. The researchers hope to pinpoint the center of the magma simmering beneath the caldera and to lower monitoring equipment into the well to keep tabs on the volcano.
Locals can’t help but cast a wary eye on Campi Flegrei these days, due to a phenomenon called bradyseism, or the alternate uplifting and subsiding of the ground over the span of several years. This activity centers on the town of Pozzuoli, which suffered damage from two major uplifts between 1970 and 1972 and between 1982 and 1984. The scientists have not said whether an eruption might occur anytime soon. Critics say the drilling project will be too close to Naples — the caldera is about 9 miles (15 km) west-southwest of the city — and could lead to earthquakes, or an explosion. Their fears aren’t just the cries of volcano-drilling not-in-my-backyarders. A similar project in Iceland was halted last year after it unexpectedly found magma at a depth of just 6,900 feet (2,100 meters). Hitting magma close to the surface could, in theory, trigger an explosion in the well or set off small earthquakes. Having a big city nearby makes these dangers even more worrisome. Scientists estimate that magma lies at least 23,000 feet (7,000 m) below the surface of the caldera — nearly twice as deep as they plan to drill.
There aren’t any volcanoes in upstate New York. But within the next decade, a 700-acre field station at the University at Buffalo could become one of the only facilities worldwide where researchers can study volcanic properties on their own terms. There will be infrastructure there that supports a variety of experiments. Anybody in the world who wants to take advantage of that to do a specific experiment could do that. “We’ll be doing a series of controlled explosions at different depths and looking at the effects of single explosions versus multiple explosions. Some of the more complicated things we’re interested in, but will take a longer time, include pyroclastic flows. We’re starting off with an emphasis on volcanoes because there’s a major gap there experimentally. That includes processes like mud flows and avalanches because those also occur in volcanoes. In the long term, we want this facility to be useful for a broader range of geological hazards….This field area is 700 acres…dedicated to large-scale experiments on topics related to extreme events.
SOUTH KOREA – The Ministry of Strategy and Finance on Wednesday warned of damage a volcanic eruption of Mt. Baekdu on the Chinese-North Korean border could mean to South Korea’s economy. “If a volcanic eruption occurs on Mt. Baekdu in the winter, northerly or northwesterly winds could carry volcanic ashes to the country.”
The prevailing winds at Mt. Baekdu are westerly, leading to forecasts of negligible damage to the South from volcanic ashes, but the wind sometimes changes in winter. If volcanic ashes were to travel over to the Korean Peninsula in the winter and disrupt air traffic for 10 days, South Korea’s exports would drop by US$2.5 billion, while tourism and other service sector business and agricultural output would face huge setbacks. If the volcanic ashes deflect sunlight, the ensuing cold temperatures could adversely affect crops.
PHILIPPINES – State seismologists have noted increased volcanic tremors around Taal Volcano in Batangas and Mayon Volcano in Albay province, but maintained that alert level 1 remains over both volcanoes Thursday. Phivolcs has recorded 10 volcanic quakes around Taal and four tremors around Mayon in the last 24 hours. Phivolcs noted an increase in seismic activity around Taal this month, but maintained this is not enough to raise the alert level there. “At present, no imminent eruption is indicated although the public is advised to observe some safety precautions.” From September 1 to 27, a total of 274 volcanic earthquakes, or an average of 10 events per day, were recorded.
Last Monday, a quake at Taal was felt at Intensity III in Barangays Calauit, Tuoran and Pira-piraso, north and northeast of the Volcano Island and was accompanied by rumbling sounds. Another event was also felt at Intensity I at Calauit at 9:16 p.m. last Sunday. Three unfelt volcanic earthquakes were recorded at 11:08 a.m. and 5:05 p.m. Monday, and 3:21 a.m. Tuesday. But field surveys at the Main Crater and at the 1965-1977 New Eruption site indicated no anomalous observations in the thermal and surface manifestations of both areas.
Phivolcs lowered the alert level at Taal to “1” last August 2, after noting lower levels of volcanic activity there.
TROPICAL STORMS –
Tropical Storm Matthew – At least 14 people have been killed by flooding and landslides from heavy rain across the Caribbean basin, as Tropical Storm Matthew lashed water-logged Central America overnight. Central America alone is in the midst of ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE RAINY SEASONS IN THE PAST 60 YEARS. Flooding and landslides have killed more than 300 people, left tens of thousands homeless and caused billions of dollars in damage in recent months.
Matthew made landfall in northern Nicaragua on Friday, forcing tens of thousands to evacuate. The storm then dumped heavy rain as it marched across northern Honduras, but weakened overland and overnight broke up into a tropical depression over Belize. “Additional weakening is anticipated and Matthew is forecast to dissipate over Central America in the next day or two.”
Yet the storm’s torrential rainfall – up to 38cm in isolated areas – will remain a serious threat to Central America even after Matthew sheds its storm status. The rainfall could produce “life-threatening flash floods and mudslides” across the region, including southern Mexico, which has already suffered from historic rainfall and flooding this year. The storm had drenched Nicaragua and Honduras earlier, but there were no initial reports of casualties, though 15 people were reported missing after boarding a sailboat off the coast of Honduras.
Tropical Storm Matthew struck Central America further south than expected on Friday. Matthew could produce 15 to 25cm of rainfall over portions of Honduras, Belize, Nicaragua and Guatemala, with isolated amounts of 38cm possible.
In Venezuela, the President called on his country to remain on alert after seven members of a family were killed in flooding in a Caracas slum triggered by heavy rain late on Friday. Another person was swept away by a swollen river in the northeastern state of Sucre. More rains are expected today.
Tropical Storm Lisa was upgraded to a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour (120 kph) on Friday but remains far from land. Already weakened back to a tropical storm, it is in the Atlantic Ocean about 385 miles (615 km) northwest of the Cape Verde islands and is moving north.
– A low pressure system of the west coast of Mexico has a 50% chance of developing into a cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Tropical Depression Matthew weakened sharply over Central America on Sunday and spared Guatemala from major damage, but heavy rain still threatened waterlogged sugar and coffee farms. Guatemalans in the eastern jungle region waded through flooded streets carrying children and belongings on their shoulders and rescue workers worked to open roads blocked by small mudslides, but the storm’s impact appeared to be light. “Up to now there have been no reports of deaths or wounded.” Rescue workers in Guatemala and the southern Mexican state of Tabasco remained on alert as river levels rose.
Honduran authorities evacuated some 3,660 people from the area around the country’s main manufacturing city, San Pedro Sula, which was hit by Matthew as it powered along Honduras’ Caribbean coast on Friday. Honduran factories exporting to the United States avoided flooding, but grain and banana crops were damaged as rivers burst their banks. There were few immediate details of the extent of the damage. “The floods are stretching across Sula, reaching towns and grain and banana plantations.” The storm’s maximum sustained winds decreased to near 25 mph on Sunday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. But it warned of continued heavy rains as Matthew could dump up to 20 inches of rain in some areas of southern Mexico and eastern Guatemala. Sugar losses might be serious because cane fields are still flooded from earlier rains. Coffee trees also risk disease and fungus from too much moisture.
A slow westward moving circulation called a “gyre” was over the western Caribbean Sea Sunday. This circulation is expected to become better organized today south of the Cayman Islands and become a tropical depression over the Cayman Islands tonight. The low will track across Cuba Tuesday night and then cross Florida Wednesday night through Thursday. The low could reach tropical storm strength before reaching the south coast of Florida but the circulation of this system will be very broad. Wind 30 to 40 mph are most likely 30 to 100 miles north and northeast of the low in the tighter pressure gradient, rather than near the low pressure center. What will remain to be seen is whether that in itself will be enough to call it a tropical storm. The main impact on Florida and coastal waters will be gale force wind and rainfall of 3 to 6 inches Wednesday and Thursday. The storm may wind up similar to tropical storm Bonnie, which was overhyped.
PHILIPPINES – As October nears, Filipinos may have to brace for “meaner” cyclones that will likely hit the country instead of just passing through Philippine territory. Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said they expect “three to four” cyclones to pass through the country in October. “This time, we are in a transition from the southwest winds to the northwest winds. Coming cyclones will directly affect the country rather than just pass far from the Philippine territory.” While there is no weather disturbance near the country for now, the next cyclone to enter or to form inside Philippine territory will be code-named “Juan.”
Tropical depression 16 – The low-level center consists of a broad area of light winds and nearly uniform pressure. Indeed, winds were 20KT or less within 100 miles or more of the center. CLEARLY…THIS IS NOT A CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE and the MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED SOME 200 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. The system may have been a marginal tropical storm earlier Tuesday. Models show what appears to be a new baroclinic development to the north replacing the former tropical cyclone, so dissipation is expected by 72 hours. Unless the circulation of the cyclone tightens up soon, the exact track of the center across Cuba and Florida will be relatively unimportant since the strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur well removed from the center and over the eastern semicircle.
Tropical depression 16 continues to have a structure more characteristic of a Western North Pacific/North Indian Ocean monsoon depression. The strongest winds and convection are 250-300 miles away from the center in the southeastern quadrant. The center appears to re-form from time to time. Neither the environment nor the current structure are conducive for significant strengthening.
FLORIDA is expecting heavy rain and a tropical storm. South Florida’s UNUSUALLY dry wet season is expected to end today as Tropical Storm Nicole dumps as much as eight inches of rain ripped by winds of up to 45 mph. Although a flood watch is in effect for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties, water managers say South Florida is well positioned for the deluge because of this summer’s lower than average rainfall. Lake Okeechobee is at 14.02 feet, a few inches below average for this time of year. The heaviest rains – as much as four to eight inches – are expected south and southeast of Lake Okeechobee, especially in Broward and Miami-Dade counties. “The system is right where we want it.”
As of 8 p.m.Tuesday, the storm was 325 miles south-southwest of Miami and moving north-northeast at 8 mph. The storm will cross over South Florida this afternoon. However, most of the strong winds and heavy rains are occurring a couple of hundred miles to the east and southeast of the center of the storm. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Jupiter Inlet south to the Keys and a tropical storm watch north to Sebastian Inlet, as well as for southwest Florida. The National Weather Service is predicting that, at most, sustained winds in Palm Beach County will be in the 25 mph to 35 mph range, with gusts up to 45 mph. The Coast Guard predicts the storm will pass just north of Miami this afternoon, with winds of 35-40 knots.
The biggest unknown – perhaps the most troublesome – is the storm’s speed. The speed of the storm is crucial, not only for predicting how much rain will fall but for how well the complex system of locks and canals will handle the water. Storms that quickly dump huge amounts of rain often cause more problems than storms that move slowly with a steady rainfall. “Every storm has its own signature.” There is no way to know now if the storm will stall or keep moving when it hits land.
-Tropical storm NICOLE was 78 nmi SSE of Miami, Florida [Nicole has dissipated. A new low, not considered to be the remnant of Nicole, is forecast to move northward along the east coast of the U.S. as a gale center during the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Nicole are likely to continue affecting portions of eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the Bahamas during the next day or so.]
Tropical Storm Nicole to Bring Heavy Rain to New York and U.S. East Coast – Tropical Storm Nicole dropped heavy rains that cut roads, washed away bridges and homes and may have killed at least one child as it moved through Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands before dissipating over the Straits of Florida. One child was reported swept away when a house succumbed to flood waters. Cuba’s meteorological institute reported “intense and heavy rains” were falling in its central provinces and warned of flooding in low-lying areas from east of Havana to Guantanamo.
Nicole has since become untrackable, according to a National Hurricane Center advisory at 5 p.m. East Coast time. The disappearance of Nicole doesn’t mean that New York and the rest of the U.S. East Coast will be spared heavy rains starting overnight Wednesday. “The weather forecast hasn’t changed much, you just can’t attach a name to it. Regardless whether Nicole existed or not, the situation was going to remain the same, a tremendous amount of tropical moisture is coming up the East Coast.” Flood watches are now posted from South Carolina to New Hampshire in advance of the storm.
As much as 6 inches (15 centimeters) of rain may fall in New York’s five boroughs. Some areas may receive more. The heaviest rain will arrive in two waves, the first will be today from 2 a.m. to 6 a.m., followed by a second late tonight. “Torrential rains could be falling from the Carolinas all the way up to New York City.”
Washington and Baltimore were forecast to receive as much as 4 inches of rain, as were New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania including Philadelphia, and Delaware. Some areas in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware may get 7 inches. In addition, the weather service has issued a high-wind watch for eastern Long Island, parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts, as well as eastern Maine. Wind gusts as intense as 60 miles (96 kilometers) per hour may occur through Friday after tomorrow.
Before it dissipated, Nicole was the 14th storm with winds of at least 39 miles per hour of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. The average season produces 11 storms. The center is also tracking two tropical waves over the central Atlantic that it says have a 10 & 20 percent chance of becoming tropical cyclones within two days.
-A large and complex area of disturbed weather associated with two tropical waves extends from the Lesser Antilles eastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles. 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
CANADA – A swath of southern Quebec is expected to be hit by heavy rain and high winds tonight as the remnants of tropical storm Nicole pushes wet weather into the region. Environment Canada warned that between 50 and 80 mm of rain are expected to land in Montreal and as far east as Rimouski by Thursday evening. The most intense downpour is expected to stretch from Montérégie to the lower St. Lawrence.
Drummondville and Quebec City are also expected to get soaked, as the low pressure cell created by tropical storm Nicole pushes a band of heavy rain northward on its slow move across Virginia. The area is already seeing the first of the downpour. Portions of northwestern New Brunswick were also expected to see heavy rain Thursday evening. Portions of eastern Ontario are expected to get wet, with as much as 80 mm of rain in store for the Cornwall area.
Gale winds were expected along the coastline and flood warnings had been issued from North Carolina to eastern New York. In South Carolina, dozens of families were forced from their homes by high water levels. Flights were also delayed or cancelled along the Eastern Seaboard. “It’s this giant bead of moisture hooking up with a front draped across the east coast, which is basically just dumping rain over a very, very large area.”
U.S. – A MASSIVE rainstorm drenched the US east coast from the Carolinas to Maine Thursday, causing at least five deaths, flooding roads and washing away months of dry weather. The worst of the rain fell in North Carolina, where Jacksonville picked up 300mm – nearly A QUARTER OF ITS TYPICAL ANNUAL RAINFALL – in SIX HOURS. The rain was part of a system moving ahead of the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole, which dissipated over the Straits of Florida on Wednesday. Much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast were starting to move into a drought after the dry summer, and the autumn storm provided several inches of much-needed rain.
The death toll from Tropical Storm Nicole in Jamaica has risen to five following flash floods and mudslides triggered by the storm. At least seven others are missing, swept away by floodwaters. The latest victims include two men who died when a house in Kingston collapsed in a slide triggered by heavy rain on saturated ground. Nicole broke apart over the Atlantic late on Wednesday afternoon. But intermittent rains increased the risk of additional landslides across the island. Emergency workers were trying to locate at least seven missing people, most of whom were believed to have been washed away in slides that roared through Kingston shanty towns. Schools and universities stayed closed for a second day, while about 30% of those served by Jamaica’s utility company were without power.
HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER –
HAITI – Five Haitian refugees have been killed as a storm overtook the impoverished country still recovering from the January earthquake. The rainstorm passed over the capital of Port-au-Prince on Friday, tearing down houses and power lines. The dead had been in homeless camps which were inundated by rain and devastated by wind. The storm, which passed quickly over the capital, caused panic and terror among the estimated 1.3 million Port-au-Prince residents still homeless eight months after the earthquake. The wind blew away tarps, tent poles and tin roofs, opening family shacks to the elements.
PAKISTAN – Severe flooding is continuing in parts of Pakistan’s southern Sindh province. Many families are still marooned on small islands with their livestock. More than 20 million people have been affected by the floods triggered by heavy monsoons which began in July. About 1.9 million houses have been destroyed or damaged. As many people return to their villages, there are concerns over whether they can be supplied with enough food and aid before winter begins. There is also “increased concern” over the spread of malaria, with more than 163,000 suspected cases being reported in the past three weeks. In the Jamshoro and Dadu districts of Sindh, vast areas are still submerged. Aerial surveys show the monsoon floodwaters have created a large number of small islands, on which people are trapped with their livestock. Floodwaters further south in Thatta district are taking longer than expected to recede.
NIGERIA, NIGER – About two million people in northern Nigeria have been displaced after authorities opened the floodgates on two dams. The dams are in Kano state, but about 5,000 villages in neighbouring Jigawa state have been affected. It is not yet clear whether residents received a warning or if anyone was injured or went missing in the flooding. Nigeria’s meteorological agency had previously forecast low rainfall in the north, warning that more than 12 million people could face food shortages as a result. The floodgates are normally opened every year during the rainy season. In a normal year, the water released from the dams flows into fields, irrigating crops of corn, rice and vegetables during the brief growing season. Several states in northern Nigeria have been hit by floods this year.
In neighbouring Niger, millions are facing food shortages after a prolonged drought caused crops to fail. That was followed by severe flooding last month. Millions are now facing food shortages.
COLUMBIA – A landslide buried about 30 people on a highway in northwestern Colombia. It was unlikely there would be survivors found. “It has been confirmed that about 30 people have been buried in the rubble from this landslide (in Antioquia department), which is quite large.” A torrent of 100,000 cubic meters of earth swept onto a highway in the town of Giraldo, which leads to the city of Medellin.
Mexico mudslide toll not as bad as first feared – At least 11 people missing in stricken village. Early reports from officials Tuesday of 300 houses buried in a landslide, with hundreds, possibly thousands of villagers swept away in a landslide appeared by early evening to have been wildly wrong. “The toll is four dead and 12 missing. Three or four houses buried in the mud. There may be more but I don’t expect the number to rise much.” At a later news conference, 11 people were said to be missing with no confirmed deaths.
State and federal officials had been alerted to the supposed disaster by calls from panicked village official at 4 a.m., who reported the mudslide had buried much of the village. Hundreds of soldiers and rescue workers were dispatched. Network television crews and newspaper teams scrambled by road and air. “It was dark when we got the alert. As long as we couldn’t verify the information we had to accept the alarm as real.”
Southern Mexico has been drenched in the heaviest rainy season in seven decades. Hurricane Karl last week and Tropical Storm Matthew had dropped a lot of rain on Oaxaca and neighboring states. Swollen rivers have flooded towns and collapsed bridges. Mudslides made other roads impassable. Foul weather prevented helicopters from reaching the village. Everyone expected the worst. “We were all sleeping and all I heard was a loud noise and when I left the house I saw that the hill had fallen. We were left without electricity, without telephone and we couldn’t help them. There was no way to move the mud.” By midafternoon, soldiers had reached the village by foot. The possible death toll dropped quickly to seven and then to four, with none confirmed. Two houses were completely buried, two other partially buried and 30 more damaged. Officials couldn’t explain the discrepancies.
Suffering along with Mexico has been much of Central America, where flooding and landslides in recent months have killed more than 300 people, left tens of thousands homeless and caused billions of dollars in damage.
INDONESIA – Two man-made lakes that have long assisted flood control efforts in Pamulang, South Tangerang, are close to collapse amid the ongoing extreme weather, threatening tens of thousands of residents and their houses in the lower areas from Bambu Apus in Ciputat to Ulujami in Tangerang. Friday, the lake overflowed several times, obstructing parts of the road and paralyzing traffic in the municipality. Residents fleeing the lake’s lower areas called on the South Tangerang administration to pay serious attention to repairing the cracking embankment to prevent it from bursting.
Authorities in Jakarta, South Tangerang municipality and Tangerang regency were urged to coordinate emergency measures to evacuate residents living in lower areas in an anticipation of a possible collapse of the Sasak Tinggi embankment. “If the dike collapses, a flash flood will certainly sweep away thousands of houses and could kill thousands of people living near the Bambu Apus and Ulujami housing areas in Tangerang.”
The two lakes were created during the Dutch colonial era to control flooding from the Krukut River, but no measures have since been taken by authorities to convert them into functioning dams. Authorities predicted that the lake’s embankment would collapse soon if it continues to rain heavily over the next few days. People in Pamulang were relatively safe, at least for a short-term, because despite the overflows, the Pamulang lake’s dike has remained strong.
The two lakes have been overflowing because they can no longer intercept water from heavy downpours, partially because of the conversion of 4,200 hectares along Krukut River for housing estates over the past decade. “The 60,000-hectare area along the Krukut River no longer has the open spaces to serve as water catchment areas capable of preventing flooding during the rainy season.”
MEXICO – A new mudslide has killed 16 people and left four missing in Chiapas, near the southern state of Oaxaca, where 11 people went missing following a previous landslide. The 16 were killed in the village of Reforma, in the town of Amatan in Mexico’s southernmost Chiapas state. Another mudlside in Chiapas was reported earlier in the village of Nueva Colombia, where a woman and two children were missing. Mexico’s southernmost state — bordering Guatemala to the south, and Oaxaca to the west — is among its poorest, and has been among the hardest hit by RECORD RAINFALLS in recent months. Since May, at least 80 people have been killed and more than 810,000 have lost their homes, with the flooding and mudslides causing damage topping four billion dollars.
MEXICO – The number of people killed in a series of mudslides in southern Mexico has climbed to 30, officials said overnight, as a punishing rainy season continued to sow misery in the region.
AUSTRALIA – Global warming has given Australia ITS WETTEST SEPTEMBER IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS, but “extreme dry years” lie ahead. September saw an average of 49mm of rain nationwide, the highest since 41mm in 1906 and almost three times above the long-term average of 17mm a year. There was some evidence that increased levels of greenhouse gases contributed to the increased rainfall. Prevailing westerly winds were shifting southward, bringing wetter conditions. “September is normally the driest on record. “We expect to see, with increased levels of greenhouse gases, a decline in rainfall in southwest WA and increased frequency of extreme dry years like the one we’ve just had.” Exceptional rainfall in northern and central Australia, normally dry at this time of year, pushed the average rainfall higher. The record rainfalls arose partly from a strong seasonal La Nina (cooling) event in the region. It was the wettest September on record in the NT and Queensland, and the third wettest in South Australia and Western Australia. That was despite very dry conditions in the far southwest of Western Australia.
[see article below] South Australia has already exceeded its average annual rainfall, making 2010 its first above-normal year since 2003. Drought-stricken Victoria largely missed out on the September deluges, however, and in 2011 the State was likely to see a 14th straight year of below-average rainfall. Victoria recorded rainfall of 500mm in the first nine months of the year, representing just over 80 per cent of its normal annual amount. This was the state’s wettest start to the year since 1996. But the rainfall for the year has not been extraordinary in a historic context, with the January-September total of 552mm ranking 28th highest in the 111 years of record. For southeast Australia as a whole, it has been the wettest first nine months of the year since 1996 and the 29th highest rainfall on record.
EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
The world sugar price has risen this year to ONE OF ITS HIGHEST LEVELS IN 30 YEARS: it was roughly 26 cents per pound on Monday. Russian agriculture this year has had unbelievably bad luck. A record breaking heat wave and drought devastated the country’s farms – and in the sugar sector the setback was felt especially hard. The drought has brought a run of improving harvests to a sudden halt. At the height of the drought, the Russian Sugar Producers Union cut its forecast for sugar production this year from an anticipated record of 4m tonnes to 3.2m-3.5m tonnes, enough to meet about half the nation’s needs. But experts have warned the final tally could be much lower. Russian sugar beet production could fall to 2.7m-2.8m tonnes this year. Farm machinery will struggle to collect beets that have dug deep roots to seek moisture in parched land. This comes along with a shortage of rain in Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer and exporter. To darken the mood in Russia further, when heavy rain fell on some farms in the fertile Black Earth region last week, it turned nearby sugar beet fields into a sea of mud, interrupting the harvest and possibly reducing the final tally by even more. “We must collect all the beets before November when the hard frosts set in.” Modern farming methods had helped swell the size of beets to the size of cricket balls in good years. But the drought had a devastating impact. “It looks more like a carrot.”
The damage done by the hot weather is partially offset in financial terms by the fact it increases the sugar content of the beets that survive. And the rain did at least nurture newly-sown winter wheat (and it was the impact of the drought on grain that triggered a Russian export ban in August, pushing world wheat prices to the highest level since the food crisis of 2007-08).
CALIFORNIA – Los Angeles baked in RECORD TEMPERATURES on Monday, bringing sweltering scenes to the US West Coast metropolis nearly a month after the end of the main August heat. As firefighters remained on alert in tinderbox conditions around the outskirts of the city, temperatures hit 45C [113F] in downtown, the HIGHEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN in 1877. Streets remained unusually empty, as local residents sought the shelter of air-conditioned shops, offices and homes. “There was a spike around noon that bumped temperatures up.” The old record of 44C set on June 26, 1990, was beaten shortly after midday. Los Angeles firefighters have been on high alert for days for wildfires which can take hold rapidly in the brush and dry woodlands which surround the city. Although temperatures were high Monday, there was little wind – giving some hope that any blaze would not spread so easily.
The heatwave comes after a cooler-than-usual summer for Los Angeles, which typically enjoys 300 days of sun a year, albeit with summer temperatures more typically between 20C [68F] and 30C. The heatwave, which began at the weekend, is set to last days more.
A decline in pollinating insects in India is resulting in reduced vegetable yields and could limit people’s access to a nutritional diet, a study warns. Indian researchers said there was a “clear indication” that pollinator abundance was linked to productivity.
Globally, pollination is estimated to be worth £141bn ($224bn) each year.
Each year, India produces about 7.5 million tonnes of vegetables. This accounts for about 14% of the global total, making the nation second only to China in the world’s vegetable production league table. Despite the concern, no study had been done to assess directly the scale of the decline in natural pollinators. “The ideal situation would have been if we were able to compare the overall pollinator abundance over the years, but that kind of data was just not available.” Instead, they compared the yields of pollinator-dependent crops with pollinator-independent crops. “Data shows that the yields of pollinator-independent crops have continued to increase. On the other hand, pollinator-dependent crops have levelled off.” Certain crops do not depend on insects for pollination, including cereals. Instead, the plants used other mechanism – such as relying on the wind to carry the pollen.
However, many vegetables – such as pumpkin, squash, cucumber and gherkin – were reliant on insects, such as bees.
The fall in yield per hectare was against the backdrop of a greater area being turned over to crop production each year. The exact cause for the decline of pollinators, especially bees, still remains a mystery. In an attempt to identify an underlying cause for the pollinator decline, the team is carrying out a series of field experiments, comparing conventional agriculture with “ecological farming”. Defined as “a farming system that aims to develop an integrated, humane, environmentally and economically sustainable agricultural production system”, ecological farming is almost a hybrid of conventional and organic farming, looking to capitalise on returns from modern farming methods as well as drawing on natural ecological services, such as pollination. “There is an obvious indication that within the ecological farming setting, there is pollinator abundance. This method typically provides the habitats for natural pollinators – this is the way forward.” India is facing a decline in natural pollinators, as ecological farming was only practiced on about 10-20% of the country’s arable land.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that of the slightly more than 100 crop species that provide 90% of food supplies for 146 countries, 71 are bee-pollinated, primarily by wild bees, and a number of others are pollinated by other insects. “There has been a debate within India about this, but most of the cereal crops are not pollinator dependent, so if there is a pollination crisis it is not going to affect food security as such.
What is going to be affected is nutritional security.” Vegetables such as pumpkins, squash, cucumber, and gherkins are “quite substantial” in terms of delivering necessary nutrients to the population. “But there are many other vegetable crops that are eaten by people who are around the poverty level, so-called minor vegetable crops like eggplant, for which is there is no or very little data.” In industrialised nations, such as the US and in Europe, many farms employ the services of commercial hives to pollinate fruit trees and food crops, and ensure they harvest adequate yields. But the use of domesticated bees in this context was not widespread in South Asia.
In 2007, about one third of the US domesticated bee population was wiped out as a result of a phenomenon known as Colony Collapse Disorder, with some commercial hive owners losing up to 90% of their bees. The exact cause remains a mystery, and last year a number of UK agencies began a £10m project to help identify the main threat to bees and other insect pollinators. A number of possible causes have been suggested, including the misuse of pesticides, habitat loss and fragmentation, and the spread of parasites and diseases.
“There are many kinds of natural pollinators. As a result, we – not only in India, but in other parts of the world – do not really know what is happening to natural pollinator populations.”
AUSTRALIA – Residents of Perth and parts of Western Australia’s southwest are allowed to use sprinklers only one day a week under a new State Government restriction. The tightening of sprinkler use follows Perth’s SECOND DRIEST WINTER ON RECORD and a RECORD 18-DAY DRY SPELL in September. The long dry has left city supply dams at only 35.2 per cent full compared with 53.2 per cent full at the same time last year. The new roster will apply until November 30 and replaces the previous two-day-a-week roster. Bore owners are permitted to use their bores for three days a week and hand-watering of gardens and lawns is still allowed.
“I ask that everyone be sensible with their water use through the rest of spring and on into summer to help us manage our water supplies through a quite extraordinary time.” The Perth region has experienced ITS LOWEST RUN-OFF INTO DAMS SINCE 1913. The new measures will help secure water supplies during a trying demand period leading up to the commissioning of a new desalination plant in the latter half of 2011.
HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD
BRITAIN saw its first snowfalls yesterday in a clear sign that summer is well and truly on the way out. Hill walkers in Scotland struggled along slippery mountain paths after THE COLDEST SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY 30 YEARS. The Cairngorms, which had enjoyed a RECORD-BREAKING winter sports season that saw slopes stay open until Easter, was hit with ONE OF THE EARLIEST SNOWFALLS IN LIVING MEMORY. The coldest temperatures were recorded at Tyndrum, where the mercury fell to -4.4C (24F) and Tulloch Bridge, which shivered at -4.2C (24.4F). “It was very chilly up there. These are the coldest temperatures recorded at this time of year since the stations opened.” Other cold spots included Exeter airport, at just below freezing, and -1.5C in South Wales.
Snow – New Zealand has been hit by extreme weather and though it has led to big problems for many people, the ski resorts have had more snow. However many have had to remain closed due to high winds. The weather has badly affected farmers and tens of thousands of people have been without electricity as power lines have been brought down. “The spring storm of 2010 is frankly THE WORST IN A GENERATION. The last big dump of snow we had was 14 years ago in the winter of 1996, while the last time we had anything this severe was 38 years ago.” Animals have died, the transport system has been hit and many people are suffering.
There’s currently no skiing in North America, as Timberline in Oregon is closed until October for its annual maintenance period however the snow is starting to fall big time, especially at the northern end of the continent. In Cananda, Marmot Basin above Jasper and Banff – Lake Louise, all in the Canadian province of Alberta, have reported big snow falls in the past week. Over 20cm of snow blanketed Banff-Lake Louise in one snowfall alone. Jasper’s Marmot Basin also received over 10 cm of snow on 20th September with considerably more accumulation at higher elevations. Last winter Marmot opened on November 11, its earliest opening date ever, with ideal snow conditions. So far this fall is shaping up to deliver a repeat performance of last year’s early season snowfalls.
Water map shows billions at risk of ‘water insecurity’ – About 80% of the world’s population lives in areas where the fresh water supply is not secure, according to a new global analysis. Researchers compiled a composite index of “water threats” that includes issues such as scarcity and pollution. The most severe threat category encompasses 3.4 billion people. In western countries, conserving water for people through reservoirs and dams works for people, but not nature. They urge developing countries not to follow the same path. Instead, they say governments should to invest in water management strategies that combine infrastructure with “natural” options such as safeguarding watersheds, wetlands and flood plains.
More people are likely to encounter more severe stress on their water supply in the coming decades, as the climate changes and the human population continues to grow. “What we’re able to outline is a planet-wide pattern of threat, despite the trillions of dollars worth of engineering palliatives that have totally reconfigured the threat landscape.” Those “trillions of dollars” are represented by the dams, canals, aqueducts, and pipelines that have been used throughout the developed world to safeguard drinking water supplies. Looking at the “raw threats” to people’s water security – the “natural” picture – much of western Europe and North America appears to be under high stress. However, when the impact of the infrastructure that distributes and conserves water is added in – the “managed” picture – most of the serious threat disappears from these regions. Africa, however, moves in the opposite direction.
“The problem is, we know that a large proportion of the world’s population cannot afford these investments. In fact we show them benefiting less than a billion people, so we’re already excluding a large majority of the world’s population. But even in rich parts of the world, it’s not a sensible way to proceed. We could continue to build more dams and exploit deeper and deeper aquifers; but even if you can afford it, it’s not a cost-effective way of doing things.” According to this analysis, and others, the way water has been managed in the west has left a significant legacy of issues for nature. Whereas Western Europe and the US emerge from this analysis with good scores on water stress facing their citizens, wildlife there that depends on water is much less secure, it concludes.
For developed countries and the Bric group – Brazil, Russia, India and China – alone, “$800bn per year will be required by 2015 to cover investments in water infrastructure, a target likely to go unmet.” For poorer countries, the outlook is considerably more bleak. “In reality this is a snapshot of the world about five or 10 years ago, because that’s the data that’s coming on line now. It’s not about the future, but we would argue people should be even more worried if you start to account for climate change and population growth. Climate change is going to affect the amount of water that comes in as precipitation; and if you overlay that on an already stressed population, we’re rolling the dice.”
‘Take me to your leader’ – The United Nations is set today to appoint a Malaysian astrophysicist to act as Earth’s first contact for any aliens that may come visiting. The head of the UN’s little-known Office for Outer Space Affairs (Unoosa), is to describe her potential new role next week at a scientific conference. She is scheduled to tell delegates that the recent discovery of hundreds of planets around other stars has made the detection of extraterrestrial life more likely than ever before – and that means the UN must be ready to coordinate humanity’s response to any “first contact”.
The Global Asteriod Shield – Owing to a 2008 law passed by Congress, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy has until 15 October to decide which agency will be responsible for protecting the planet from an asteroid strike. Members of the task force say NASA expects to be given part or all of that responsibility. To meet it, the panel discussed the creation of a Planetary Protection Coordination Office within NASA, with an annual budget of $250 million. It would detect and track asteroids — and develop a capability to deflect them. “You want to use a proven capability when you’re talking about an actual threat.” Even an asteroid just one kilometer in diameter would be enough to cause worldwide crop failures and a shift in the earth’s climate. One just a few meters wide could wipe out a major city.
The U.S. currently spends about $5.5 million per year to track NEO’s and less than a million on researching ways to counter them, but is falling far short of asteroid-detection goals. Some might say that’s already too much, given the more terrestrial problems the U.S. faces. NASA says it needs $1 billion to meet its goal of detecting all potentially dangerous objects by 2020. The PPCO would also challenge other countries to fund defense against asteroids, perhaps through the United Nations. Canada already plans to launch the NEO [near-earth objects] Survey Satellite in 2011, and Germany’s AsteroidFinder is slated for launch in 2012, but neither is expected to come close to the NEO-logging goal by 2020.
Scientists have been urging the United Nations to coordinate international asteroid detection efforts for years. But despite coordinating work by the U.N. Office for Outer Space Affairs, progress seems to be slow-going. There are some promising signs of other powers starting to take the lead. The Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosted a conference on international asteroid tracing earlier this year. Russia’s space agency has also proposed a joint asteroid monitoring project with the European Union. The good news is we probably have some time. An object big enough to wipe out a sizeable portion of the earth’s population only hits about twice every million years.
HEALTH THREATS –
Millions of people who take daily vitamin pills could be putting themselves at risk of the deadliest form of skin cancer. Research has revealed that supplements containing antioxidants and minerals appear to increase the chances of developing a malignant melanoma. Volunteers given pills containing vitamin E, ascorbic acid, beta-carotene, selenium and zinc were four times more likely to get cancer than those who took dummy pills. The increased risk virtually disappeared once patients stopped daily supplements. Now scientists behind the research are calling for those most at risk of skin cancer – fair-skinned types or those with a history of excessive sun exposure – to steer clear of supplements. Women may be more at risk than men, possibly because they have more fat around the skin, where antioxidants and vitamins are mainly stored.
Flu activity is showing a late-season flourish in some parts of the Southern Hemisphere, such as Chile, where levels in some areas exceed last year’s pandemic peak, and in parts of Australia. Flu activity in several of Chile’s regions equals or is slightly higher than the country’s 2009 winter pandemic wave, with the disease hitting children under age 15 the hardest, followed by those ages 15 to 64. The 2009 H1N1 virus is cocirculating in Chile alongside seasonal flu viruses. However, limited data from neighboring Argentina suggests low levels of flu, mainly influenza B, between June and late August.
Health officials in Australia have reported steady increases in flu activity since late August, though at levels well below the past three influenza season. Activity is widespread in Victoria in South Australia state and West Australia state, where the 2009 H1N1 and influenza B viruses are cocirculating. New Zealand also had a late start to its flu season, but activity, most of it 2009 H1N1 flu, has dipped below seasonal baselines.
India and Thailand continue to report significant flu activity. Though activity in India has been geographically widespread, with 17 states and territories reporting new cases, activity is stable or declining in all but a few states, suggesting that national activity may have peaked. The 2009 H1N1 virus has been India’s predominant circulating strain. The country is still reporting many cases and deaths.
Meanwhile, southern China, Hong Kong, and to a lesser extent northern China have reported increased circulation of the seasonal influenza A (H3N1) virus. Officials in Hong Kong have linked increased H3N2 detections with a steady rise in doctor’s visits for flulike illness. Thailand is reporting active transmission of mainly the 2009 H1N1 virus, along with some H3N2 and influenza B strains. The rise in flu activity is occurring at a time when increasing flu activity isn’t surprising.
Signs in False Shepherds & False Religion
“For among them are those who worm their way into households and capture idle women burdened down with sins, led along by a variety of passions, always learning and never able to come to a knowledge of the truth. Just as Jannes and Jambres resisted Moses, so these also resist the truth, men who are corrupt in mind, worthless in regard to the faith. But they will not make further progress, for their lack of understanding will be clear to all, as theirs was also.” 2 Timothy 3:6-9
Faith Under Fire
“Blessed are you when they insult you and persecute you and falsely say every kind of evil against you because of me. Be glad and rejoice, because your reward is great in heaven. For that is how they persecuted the prophets who were before you.” Matthew 5:11-12
“You will be hated by everyone because of my name. But the one who endured to the end will be delivered.” Matthew 10:22